Economic Shift Favors Buyers Amid Rising Confidence in Real Estate Market
The economic landscape is increasingly tilting in favor of buyers, spurred by easing inflation and falling interest rates. August’s OCR (Official Cash Rate) cut has further boosted buyer activity, and new data from realestate.co.nz indicates the property market is also primed for prospective buyers.
Unprecedented Price Stability Brings Certainty
September saw a surge in stock levels, the highest in a decade, providing buyers with ample choices. Average asking prices remained flat, marking an unprecedented stretch of stability lasting nearly two years. The national average asking price has consistently stayed between $860,000 and $890,000, a record for price consistency since tracking began 17 years ago.
While price stability gives both buyers and sellers more predictability, interest is growing among potential buyers eager to act before market conditions shift, especially with another OCR review on the horizon. In September, realestate.co.nz reported a 28% rise in active users, with international interest growing from Australia (up 35%), the United States (up 16%), and the UK (up 25%).
Though market changes won’t happen overnight, the cyclical nature of real estate suggests those waiting for the right time may be seeing a window of opportunity.
Price Stability Offers Buyers and Sellers Rare Predictability
In September, the national average asking price saw minimal change, increasing just 0.2% year-on-year and 2.7% month-on-month. This represents 20 months of flat pricing, a record for stability. Since January 2023, when the national average asking price was $879,530, prices have only fluctuated slightly, currently standing at $870,110.
This extended period of price stability provides rare certainty for both buyers and sellers. Buyers can confidently enter the market, knowing prices have held steady, while sellers can adjust their expectations based on predictable trends.
Lifestyle Regions Lead Modest Price Growth
Two regions, Central Otago/Lakes District and Marlborough, stood out with double-digit year-on-year price growth, recording 10.4% and 10.0% gains, respectively. Despite stock levels rising by over 30% in these regions, demand remains high, underscoring their appeal as lifestyle destinations.
Spring Sees Highest Stock Levels in a Decade
National stock levels reached their highest point in a decade for September, with more than 30,000 properties listed for sale—a first since 2014. This represents an increase of nearly 6,500 properties compared to September 2023. Most regions saw double-digit stock growth, providing buyers with plenty of options as spring approaches.
If buyer confidence continues to build, this abundant supply may begin to dwindle as more buyers seize the opportunity.
Sellers Gain Confidence with Highest September Listings Since 2020
Seller confidence is also on the rise, with new listings in September up 18.7% year-on-year and 15.3% month-on-month, marking the most active September for new listings in three years. Regions like Gisborne, Coromandel, and Central Otago/Lakes District saw the largest jumps in listings, with increases ranging from 40% to 50%.
The warmer spring weather typically encourages more listings, and this year is seeing a return to typical spring activity levels, with nearly 10,000 new properties coming to market, compared to around 7,000 in recent years.
As spring unfolds, both buyers and sellers are poised for a potentially busier season, with favorable market conditions fostering confidence across the board.
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